Two plus months into the war with Iran and the fog of war is becoming the fog of peacemaking. What was a shoot-out has become a stand-off. The key terrain feature remains the Strait of Hormuz. It is the key to this conflict in much the same way that Vicksburg was to the Civil War. The double blockade of the Strait is creating a siege atmosphere and mindset. Daniel Yergin, the great energy scholar and scribe, calls this the biggest energy disruption in history. Resolving this grand disruption will not be easy or quick.
Many Americans are tired of the stand-off at the Strait and anxious to get back to the way life was three months ago but they will probably be disappointed. Ending a war is much more complicated than starting one. War by its very nature is an effort to change the course of history and history can be very unforgiving.
Peacemaking is hard and easy to screw up. Getting it right is critical, especially when negotiating with fanatics. America has plenty of good and bad examples of peacemaking over the past 250 years. With all the grumbling and anxiety over gasoline prices it would be good to review some of those past peacemaking experiences, both good and bad.
The Vietnam War peace talks (Paris Peace Accords) lasted almost five years from May 1968 - January 1973 in the midst of still intense jungle combat.
World War I’s fighting ended with an Armistice on 11/11/1918 but the Treaty of Versailles wasn’t signed until 6/28/1919. Many historians now blame the tough provisions of that treaty for the rise of the Third Reich and WWII.
Fighting in the Spanish American War ended with an Armistice on 8/12/1898 and the Treaty of Paris was signed on 12/10/1898. It ceded control of Cuba, Guam, Puerto Rico and the Philippines to the U.S. In less than a year the Philippine Insurrection would begin with the Battle of Manilla on 2/4/1899.
The Peace deals of WWII were decided in conferences in 1943 at Casablanca and Tehran when the Allied Leaders (Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin) agreed on Unconditional Surrender terms for the Axis Powers.
The War of 1812 was fought in a time when communication was determined by the speed of a ship under sail or by horseback. Alas, the signing of the Treaty of Ghent in Belgium on 12/24/1814 did nothing to deter Andrew Jackson’s dramatic victory in the Battle of New Orleans on January 8th 1815.
The Mexican American War 1846 – 48 was another peacemaking effort frustrated by pre-telegraph communications. President James K. Polk was an ardent advocate for Manifest Destiny. The War began as a border dispute over whether Texas’s southern border should be the Rio Grande River or the Nueces River. Zachary Taylor and Winfield Scott led the American forces which included many future Civil War generals. Winfield Scott accepted the Mexican surrender in Mexico City in September 1847. Oddly, President Polk chose as his peacemaking envy a low-level bureaucrat, Nicholas Trist, who logged many miles between Washington and Mexico City in completing one of the most consequential peace treaties in American history. The Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo set Texas’s southern border as the Rio Grande and more importantly it added California, Nevada, Utah, most of Arizona along with parts of New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming to the U.S. and the U.S. agreed to pay Mexico $15 million. It was signed by Trist on February 2, 1848 and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on March 10, 1848. Unbeknownst to the negotiators and ratifiers from both sides, gold was discovered at Sutter’s Mill outside Sacramento during February. Within months it would trigger one of America’s greatest migrations as citizens rushed to the gold fields of its new western state.
Wars are often pivot points in history with a host of consequences, some intended some not. This conflict combined with the event in Venezuela could be a big gamechanger for the U.S. and the rest of the world. But a successful lasting peace is a necessary requirement.
Ashby Foote III is President of Vector Money Management and serves on the Jackson City Council, Ward 1. He is on the board of Bigger Pie.
