To the Editor:
Mark Twain liked the saying that three kinds of lies exist, “lies, damn lies, and statistics.” He also commented that “all the Republicans are insane, but only the Democrats and Mugwumps can perceive it.” Historically Mugwumps were Republicans who bolted the Party in disgust when it nominated a highly undesirable candidate for President in 1884, a behavior they have clearly now abandoned.
Mark Twain thus might have relished Dana Gwin’s latest letter. On the one hand it lies a bit with statistics. On the other hand it regurgitates the standard Republican insanity that the social ills of today (the “real issues” facing our society) originated with LBJ’s failed Great Society.
Aspects of the Great Society did fail, but the financial drain of the Vietnam War choked programs at the outset. Many programs still did fairly well, for example Job Corp, Teacher Corps and the Higher Education Act, all of which have benefitted Mississippi.
Also, despite bureaucratic failings, without Medicare, many elderly in Mississippi would totally lack health insurance. As the tentacles of economic insecurity began to extend into the middle classes, however, social spending on programs for the poor became a handy scapegoat on which to blame both the financial and moral ills of society. Cadillac driving, steak eating, baby spawning, Food Stamp recipients were obviously the cause of middle class economic angst. This is the failed liberalism and conservative drum which Dana Gwin now beats.
Additionally, the letter deceptively using a statistic out of context. In support of marijuana legalization, it claims that “states that have ended cannabis prohibition have seen a 25% reduction in opioid deaths and crime reduction.” Obviously if marijuana is legalized, crime related to it does go down, but evidence is now appearing (AAA for example) that fatal road crashes relating to marijuana may be escalating, along with accident rates.
The 25% statistic itself dates to a 2014 research study in which the precise value was 24.8%. Rounding up is forgivable, but deception is not. The research did not study “the end of cannabis prohibition.” It only studied the impact which medical legalization had on deaths from opioid overdose. This is distinct from recreational legalization, or the end of cannabis prohibition in toto, which was not studied at all. Additionally, only about 13 states were studied, excluding data from at least nIne others.
Furthermore, the research indicated that persons with legitimate prescriptions switching from risky opioids to less risky cannabis largely accounted for the decrease in deaths. It is patients with legitimate prescriptions, not self prescribing abusers, who have historically accounted for the highest proportion of opioid overdoses. Admittedly though, with the rise in illegitimate use, this proportion may be shifting. Regardless, the study cautioned against applying its findings to other states or to those intentionally abusing opioids, and it certainly didn’t address the impact of an end to prohibition.
As to the letter’s mockery of Mississippians fleeing to “godless” Cuba, Gov. Bryant and other state leaders hauled out the oars and rowboats immediately when Obama lifted trade restrictions with Cuba. Apparently Cuba’s godlessness wasn’t a moral consideration if Christian businessmen could anticipate lining their pockets with godless pesos. The election of Trump may have swamped these boats, however, a political irony for Republican leaders of MS who supported him.
Lastly, while the study of society can sometimes generate correlations of varying strength between an X (for example the Great Society) and a Y (fatherless feral children) any proof that X emphatically causes Y cannot be established. Claiming that correlations, even high ones, imply causality is one way to lie with statistics. The societal and human variables are too complex for such proof. Regardless, calling inner city children “feral” places them in the category of animals, and if that doesn’t embody racial disparagement or strike a nerve with anyone else, what does?
Beverly E. Johnson
Kosciusko
