What are the odds of Mississippi turning “blue”? Let me answer it this way.
It’s unlikely to happen in my lifetime or in Tyree Irving’s.
Irving, the retired appellate court judge who has been serving as chairman of the state Democratic Party since 2020, was dreaming again this past week during an appearance at the Greenwood Voters League.
He sees a time — between eight to 20 years from now — when the Democratic Party will again be a dominant force in Mississippi, as it was until about 20 years ago.
He and the new state executive director for the Democrats, Andre Wagner, said they are encouraged by what has transpired in Georgia, where Joe Biden — contrary to Donald Trump’s continued claim otherwise — won in 2020 and where Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.
Mississippi, however, ain’t Georgia.
First off, it is an exaggeration to describe Georgia as blue. Purple maybe.
Biden’s victory in Georgia was exceedingly thin — less than 12,000 votes out of almost 5 million cast. Although Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock may have benefited from Biden’s coattails to narrowly capture in 2020 the two Senate races, Warnock owes more to Trump than Biden for holding onto the seat this past November. Had Republicans fielded a nominee other than Herschel Walker, the unqualified and unstable candidate Trump anointed, Warnock could very well be an ex-senator today.
In addition, for all the gains that Democrats have made in federal elections in Georgia, Republicans still dominate the state contests. Brian Kemp, whom Trump by his opposition unwittingly helped, beat in 2022 the Democrats’ rising star, Stacey Abrams, by a wider margin than four years earlier. And for the 19th consecutive year, a Republican governor is working with GOP majorities in both the Georgia House and Senate.
In addition, the main forces enabling a Democratic rebound of sorts in Georgia — dramatic population growth, especially in its urban center — have not been present two states to the west in Mississippi.
Georgia is one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Between the last two census headcounts, it added more than a million people, a growth rate exceeding 10%.
Mississippi is nowhere close to keeping pace. Although the initial report of a 10-year population loss turned out to be the result of an undercount, the state, even with the adjusted figures, experienced a growth rate that was only about a third the size of Georgia’s.
More significantly in regard to party affiliation, the majority of Georgia’s population boom has been centered around Atlanta, and it has included a large number of younger people and transplants from other states — all demographics that tend to lean Democratic.
Mississippi, by contrast, is still a heavily rural state. The Jackson metropolitan area accounts for about one-seventh of the state’s overall population. Atlanta’s metro area represents more than half of Georgia’s.
Those differing population trends might even lead a cynic to wonder if GOP apathy toward Jackson is partially rooted in the party’s long-term political interests. As long as the Capitol city remains dysfunctional and crime-ridden, its power to attract people from other parts of the state and from other states is limited. Without an urban powerhouse such as Atlanta, Birmingham or Nashville, Mississippi will remain rural and insular. That means an electorate dominated by conservatives, keeping state government in Republican control for the foreseeable future.
Mississippi is just a few days away from the qualifying deadline for this year’s elections.
It is again shaping up to be a scenario in which Republicans are all but guaranteed of winning seven of the eight statewide contests and will be favored to make their second straight clean sweep.
The only Democrat with a chance at breaking the lock hold will be Brandon Presley, the populist public service commissioner who is trying to unseat incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.
If Presley pulls off the upset, it will be an aberration, not a trend. He will have to run against his national party on abortion, gun control and most other hot-button social issues. He can be progressive on policies, such as Medicaid expansion, that would benefit the African American and working-class white coalition he is trying to forge, but on most everything else he will have to sound conservative. He will have to convince a slice of GOP voters that he can work better with Republicans in the Legislature than the often arrogant Republican governor.
If Presley wins, in other words, Mississippi will be nearly as red as it was before his election.
- Contact Tim Kalich at 662-581-7243 or tkalich@gwcommonwealth.com.
